> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.stakingrewards.com/defi-ratings/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.stakingrewards.com/defi-ratings/rating-methodology/backtesting-and-calibration.md).

# Backtesting and Calibration

The methodology is designed to be **empirical and adaptive**.

* Initial thresholds and weights are **calibrated using historical protocols and known incidents**.
* We monitor:
  * How AAA/AA/A protocols perform vs. BB/CCC when stress events or exploits occur
  * **Incidents per 10 protocols per rating band** (or similar normalized metrics)
* We periodically adjust the framework to better align with **real-world outcomes**.

We commit to publishing **annual calibration reports** summarizing:

* Rating distributions and changes over time
* Observed incidents and losses by rating band
* Methodology adjustments and their rationale